Optimal betting

Since all bets have a house advantage, and a negative expected value, the optimal strategy is to be the house. Failing that, one can reduce one’s average hourly losses by only placing bets with the smallest house advantage.

The pass/don’t line, come/don’t line, place 6, place 8, buy 4 and buy 10 (only under the casino rules where commission is charged only on wins) are the bets with the lowest house edge, and all other bets will on average lose money between three and twelve times faster because of the difference in house edges.

An important alternative metric is house advantage per roll (rather than per bet), which may be expressed in loss per hour see reference. The typical pace of rolls varies depending on the number of players, but 102 rolls per hour is a cited rate for a nearly full table see reference. This same reference states that only “29.6% of total rolls are come out rolls, on average,” so for this alternative metric, needing extra rolls to resolve the pass line bet, for example, is factored. This number then permits calculation of rate of loss per hour, and per the 4 day/5 hour per day gambling trip:

$10 Pass line bets 0.42% per roll, $4.28 per hour, $86 per trip

$10 Place 6,8 bets 0.46% per roll, $4.69 per hour, $94 per trip

$10 Place 5,9 bets 1.11% per roll, $11.32 per hour, $226 per trip

$10 Place 4,10 bets 1.19% per roll, $12.14 per hour, $243 per trip

$1 Single Hardways 2.78% per roll, $2.84 per hour, $56.71 per trip

$1 All hardways 2.78% per roll, $11.34 per hour, $227 per trip

$5 All hardways 2.78% per roll, $56.71 per hour, $1134 per trip

$1 Craps only on come out 3.29% per roll, $3.35 per hour, $67.09 per trip

$1 Eleven only on come out 3.29% per roll, $3.35 per hour, $67.09 per trip

Although their house percentages are poor, hardways and C/E (any craps / eleven) do not lose money as quickly as the pass line bet if some restraint as to frequency is used, such as limiting such bets to the come out roll as the chart shows. The $1 “yo” (eleven) bet, split with the dealers on come-out rolls by calling out “two-way yo,” tends to be a favorite with many players as means of tipping the dealers without giving up too much per gambling trip. If eleven comes out on the come out roll, the pass line win bets and the more substantial “yo” bet splits.

Also, by this metric, other betting patterns are shown to be costly, for example placing $10 on all point numbers, which has a much higher loss of $40.49 per hour or $810 per trip.

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